As the UEFA Champions League enters its knockout phase, football analytics powerhouse Opta has provided an AI-driven prediction, giving English clubs just over a 38% chance of lifting the prestigious trophy. With Friday’s Round of 16 draw looming, Opta’s SuperComputer has run a staggering 10,000 simulations to forecast the most likely winners.

Among the contenders, Liverpool emerge as favorites with a 20.2% chance of securing European glory. The Reds, under Jurgen Klopp, have rediscovered their spark this season and are tipped to go all the way. Close behind them, Arsenal hold a 16.8% probability, with Mikel Arteta’s side given a commanding 79% chance of reaching the quarter-finals—likely facing Dutch opposition in PSV Eindhoven or Feyenoord.

Beyond the Premier League, Barcelona (12.7%) and Inter Milan (12.4%) are considered stronger contenders than Real Madrid (10.5%), a somewhat surprising take given Los Blancos' unmatched 15-time record in the competition. Meanwhile, Aston Villa, the 1982 European champions, have only a 1.2% chance of defying the odds and repeating history.

Opinion: Is AI Underestimating Madrid's Magic?

While Opta’s model is rooted in statistical analysis, football has proven time and again that numbers don't always dictate reality. Real Madrid, for example, have defied probability on multiple occasions—just ask PSG, Chelsea, and Manchester City, who all fell victim to their magical 2022 run. Betting against Madrid in the Champions League is always risky.

Similarly, while Liverpool and Arsenal are formidable, the unpredictability of European nights means anything can happen. Injuries, tactical masterclasses, and moments of brilliance can shift the odds dramatically.

Do you think the AI is spot-on, or are we in for another script-defying Champions League season? Share your thoughts!